The Debates

 

So, the first Democratic debates are over and now it’s time to look at the field and see who is serious and who should be looking at what they will do while while the election win is pursued.

But first I think we should look at a big criticism that is coming from the pundits and put it to sleep. Stop whining about the candidates not attacking Donald Trump. It’s June of 2019. There is still plenty of time to show the world what an unmitigated shitheel he is. Actually most of them already know it. The first debate is the time for the candidates to tell the American public who theyare and whattheystand for. Don’t forget, most people don’t spend 100% of their days dealing with politics they way we do. Hell, I didn’t even know two of the candidates. Introducing themselves is what these first debates are for; getting people to say; “He’s kind of cool. Maybe we should take a second look at her.”

also think we need to look at one of the principal arbiters of all things politic and his daily invasion of the airways, Joe Scarborough on Morning Joe.  Joe has gotten so popular that he seems to have decided that his word and only his word counts. As most know, Joe is a former Republican congressman who left he party after a squabble with Donald Trump over Mika Brzezinski’s hinted at “plastic surgery”. Trump was, as always, wrong and classless about the whoe thing and Joe was right, but listening to him this morning it doesn’t seem that he has really left the GOP, mainly because so much of his philosophy is still far right. In this, another so-called former Republican, Michael Steele, former head of the GOP, joins him.

Both have made a big deal about the concept of healthcare for all and Joe has fallen into the Trumpian trap of lying to make a point. Joe spent this morning trying to sell the idea that if you accept Medicare for All you will lose your doctor. This is pure Trumpian logic. Another words… bullshit! The reality is that if you have insurance now and they cover your doctor, he will be covered under Medicare. There are doctors out there that do no accept any insurance. They don’t like the rates. They want that second yacht. That’s their prerogative but it’s about them not accepting Medicare, not the other way around.

Don’t forget, the basic reason for getting rid of insurance company provided coverage is economic. Insurance companies have to cover the same medical costs as Medicare, (they don’t always) and they have to make a profit. So your union or job related health insurance actually costs the system a hell of a lot more than government provided Medicare. Insurance profit margins run between 20 & 40% of cost of delivery. That’s money that doesn’t buy anything medical. It just gives you the privilege of getting scammed by the insurance company.  The companies call it profits. If you want to pay United that much more just because they smile nice that’s your problem but they aren’t adding anything to your healthcare and anyone who says different is just lying.

But despite all that, there is no way to convince anybody of anything they don’t want to believe so the best approach is to provide Medicare to those that want it and let the rest continue to buy their own private insurance. It should take about two billing cycles, tops, for all those who are getting soaked by insurance companies to come around on their own. That will remove the argument from the equation. If Joe had to pay his own insurance he would realize this. His union will realize it soon enough. The insurance all those union members are enjoying now is costing them in vacation pay; retirement benefits, higher salaries and maternity leave among other things. There is no such thing as a “free lunch.” The same goes for government-sponsored healthcare. Yes, your taxes will go up but you will still make out better because of what you will save on healthcare premiums and co-pays.

*****

And now on to the debates! We have a small army of candidates most of whom think they are serious but when it all washes out no more than a half dozen will battle it out for the nomination. And it already looks like that half dozen will not include either of Biden or Bernie. Not that they are going to disappear tonight but it doesn’t really appear that either will have it for the long haul.  I could be very wrong and both could very definitely change course and come bounding back but right now neither looks like the future of the Democratic Party and that future starts on 1/20/21. Having watched the two-night debate, it would seem, however, that we can quickly winnow about half the field without missing any good bets.

But let’s start at the beginning. Wednesday night featured ten people who all said they wanted to be President and all wanted to beat Donald Trump. Those are two very different statements and there didn’t seen to be more than two or three who could safely do either.

They all appeared to be smart people, they all looked like they were geared for the fray but they didn’t all have what it will take and that was just as obvious.

With this group the weight was all in the center where Elizabeth Warren lived. She had the presence, she had the answers and she had a clear vision of what had to be done and how to do it. She was definitely the weight.

One spot over from her, Amy Klobachar gave a very strong showing, especially if you are already looking for VP candidates, but my feeling is that Klobachar is too important as a Senator to waste her in the VP slot.

Jay Inslee, Governor of Washington gave a really good account of himself but he has to get a broader platform. Right now he’s a one trick pony, even if it is the most important trick. I could see him face to face with Trump. He gets to stay.

John Delany is one of the smartest guys in the running but he has a very ineffectual speaking style and JFK proved long ago how important that is. Delaney should run for Senate.

Corey Booker acquited himself very well. Unfortunately he seemed to have decided pre-debate that he had to get the black vote away from all the other candidates and it appeared that this sidelined him somewhat, but Corey is a comer and must be considered.

Then there was the fight for Texas where Beto O’Rourke went head to head with Julian Castro over section 1325 of the immigration law and Castro appeared to have won. This was Castro’s serious unveiling after a successful number of years in government and he did it at the expense of Beto who after a strong start seems to be fading fast.  Castro could be another great Senator and so might Beto but right at this point neither appears to have the weight for this fight.

Tim Ryan looks to have the weight, but he has a completely wrong take on the problem. He seems to think the party leaders should be apologizing for being smarter than the GOP and that they should be trying to get voters to believe they have their backs. Hasn’t he been listening? This has been the thrust of every Democrat since 2016. Maybe they are all doing something wrong because this guy has completely missed the point. Or maybe he’s just too thick between the ears. Back to Ohio!

Tulsi Gabbard is smart, functional and she’s a vet. But she doesn’t have the background or the weight. Hawaii already has Democrats in both Senate seats but there will be plenty of government jobs to fill if the Dems can take the presidency.

 

Then there’s Bill DeBlasio. A lot of people thought he did very well and he does know how to make a speech but I’m from NYC and I voted for him… for the last time. He’s a great talker but definitely not a doer. He can’t handle city, why should we send him to handle a country?

 

So that was the first night. I’d like to see more from a couple of them and you can be certain we will.

 

On night two the battle between Biden and Bernie never happened. Instead Kamala Harris stepped up, more than once and showed us that she can really handle older white men. Maybe it’s time for Donald to duck.

 

Bernie stayed on his main theme most of the night, turning every question to wages and taxes but he even seemed to bore himself and he faded late in the night.

 

Pete Buttigieg fielded a hardball and threw out the runner right off the bat when he accepted blame for a problem that’s not really his in South Bend and then settled into his usual cool, calm logical style. This is the smartest guy in the room, most of the time, and no one changed that opinion the other night.

Eric Swalwell, the other young guy on the panel, didn’t fare as well. He kept trying to interrupt his elders and finally crapped out when he demanded that Pete fire his police chief just after Pete had explained that an investigation was in progress.

Michael Bennett is one of the smartest guys running but his narcotic whine of a speaking style is guaranteed only to promote the sale of uppers for anyone looking to get through one of his addresses. Too bad!

John Hickenlooper, on the other hand, is one of the dumbest of the candidates. Either that or he just doesn’t understand what the hell he’s doing up there. How the hell did he ever get to be a governor?

Andrew Yang is billed as a successful businessman but I’m sure he didn’t get that way by giving away money. His big idea, to give everybody in the country a thousand bucks a month seemed to get both the Right and the Left mad. Not a way to start a successful candidacy.

Kristen Gillibrand seemed to think that the way to win the debate was to expound on Bill DeBlasio’s already unsuccessful strategy of interrupting everyone who was speaking. It didn’t work any better for her. Nor did her strident style.

And finally there was Marianne Williamson author and promotional speaker who was intelligent and forceful but made us realize that we already have one clown in the presidency with absolutely no political background. We really don’t need a second.

So where does that leave us? Well, there were definitely some strong performances, a couple of so-so tries and then the rest.

The keeps: Harris, Warren, Buttigieg, Biden, Bernie, Klobachar, Booker, Castro, Inslee,

On to other pursuits: Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, O’Rourke, DeBlasio, Yang, Hickenlooper, Swalwell, Bennett, Gillibrand and Williamson.

Sure it’s a tough cut but it’s a serious business and there’s no reason to waste time and money on candidates that have no realistic shot.  Let’s use our resources where they count the most.